By George H. Wittman on
11.16.12 @ 6:07AM from the American Spectator
The 18th Party Congress sends clear new
signals.
After a final count it appears that 2,268 party
members attended the 18th Congress of the Communist Party of China in Beijing
this past week. They clapped appropriately during and after each speech and
gave every appearance of complete agreement and uniformity. But the only thing
uniform about these "chosen ones" is their dark black and blue suits.
Each has his own agenda -- and political patron. Secrecy, however, is the
guiding principle that links all these representatives -- and yet there are
signs that expose much of the conflict within.
If there was a theme to this congress that could not
be hidden, it had to be corruption. The specter of the dismissed politburo
member, the popular and powerful Bo Xilai, and his deals with the British
businessman who was killed by Bo's wife, hung over the entire session. Premier
Wen Jiabao's family had been charged in a New York Times article as having accumulated $2.7 billion during his
political career. The Times' Chinese language website was blocked
as punishment, but the damage had been done and most observers could not find
strong reasons to disagree with the general figures.
Without pointing to a specific example, Hu Jintao,
the outgoing president, acknowledged the corruption problem in general by
forcefully calling for indictment of all corrupt officials no matter their
rank. Hu went so far as to warn the congress that corruption could cause the fall
of the state. This was a message that everyone understood and it is expected
that quite a few foreign bank accounts will be undergoing review.
All this was done to great applause, of course,
except for the most senior Party member, the retired former leader, 86-year-old
Jiang Zemin, who rarely has been seen in the last ten years. Jiang, whose
presence at the congress surprised the entire foreign press, conspicuously kept
his clapping in approval to a very limited degree. His careful lack of
enthusiasm made Jiang's appearance even more impressive. The fact that the
expected new Party leader and China's presumptive next president, Xi Jinping,
has long been characterized as a protégé of Jiang signified not only the
latter's continued influence, but a division in Politburo direction.
Supposedly that direction is to include a return to
a greater emphasis on what is referred to as "market --oriented economic
policies," as opposed to Hu Jintao's tendency to encourage more
centralized, large government-owned industrial and commercial institutions. The
warning that such a shift might be in the making came when Zhang Ming, a
well-known political science professor at Renmin University, Beijing, publicly stated that "China's economic situation is not
very good…To fix this the best method for China would be to open its
state-owned enterprises (SOEs) by breaking them down into private
enterprises." He then suggested obscurely that this action would bring in
"enough capital for actual political reform." This reform, he said
without clarification, is necessary as inaction would produce severe
consequences.
Provocative statements such as Professor Zhang's are
viewed as purposely exaggerated in order to draw public attention to the
broader political concept of the economic issue he sought to address. Political
science academics in China do not strike out on their own to attack the
principles of state enterprise without strong backing. It has been suggested
that Jiang Zemin was more than willing to come out of his
"retirement" to stimulate a return to market-oriented policies for
which he had become so famous in his presidency. Prof. Zhang effectively set
the scene.
The body that directs the operations of the
Politburo is its Standing Committee. Here, too, Mr. Jiang seems to have waved a
political wand and produced a majority of the candidates for the projected
seven spots.
Most important is the reported alignment with Jiang Zemin of the
next Communist Party chief and presumptive President of the PRC, the youthful
(59-year-old) Xi Jinping. It will not be easy sailing for Xi even with the
support of the reinvigorated Mr. Jiang. The Chinese press has noted there will
be twenty ex-Standing Committee members, all of whom will want to exert their
influence in some manner.
Theories abound in Beijing over what exactly will be
the new direction in China's administration. How long will the aged Jiang
continue to exert his renewed interest and political strength? Will Xi Jinping,
having been well launched, simply proceed along on his own? Strengthening
market orientation may not be as assured as might be expected. Jiang's support
for five of the seven men in the Standing Committee does not necessarily
guarantee that even this player roster will maintain a deep commitment to major
change from centralized state enterprise to greater private ownership driven by
market principles. Hu Jintao's acolytes may yet fully respond.
More clarification is likely between now and next
March, when Xi Jinping is to be formally installed as president. There'll be a
strong effort to avoid goring too many important oxen while, however, making
sure that the proper advantages are distributed and important positions divided
along the most effective lines.
This is China, after all, where sophistication and
stark reality mix in an arcane political stew. It is certainly not an
environment for the faint of heart nor the marginal talents of the current
Washington foreign policy leadership.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes
a weekly column on international affairs for The
American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National
Institute for Public Policy.
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